methods
Two reads on the same cycle.
One forecast is structural and runs to the precinct. The other is a polling nowcast that ends on the last day with a survey behind it. Pick the one that answers your question.
external·votehub
VoteHub Forecast Model
A structural forecast that runs all the way down to the precinct level.
- In-depth geography down to individual precincts
- Fundamentals-driven structure for long-range projection
- Best read of the map months out from Election Day
Open on VoteHub ›
votehub.com
this site·baseline
Personal Baseline Model
A polling-focused baseline that tends to get more accurate in the final weeks.
- Polling-weighted with state-by-state baselines
- Sharpens as polling thickens in the closing stretch
- Daily refresh across Senate, Governor, House
Open the Baseline ›
theoelections.com